The Smiths can beat everyone but Green Day, Stevie Ray Vaughan, Lou Reed (Velvet Underground or not, he will get in). The Marvellettes have a good shot and I doubt Moz would mind...they are the sleeper here. Kraftwerk deserve it (no Kraftwerk - no Depeche Mode, no New Order, no Pet Shop Boys, no Erasure, but don't take my word for it, take Martin Gore's). Still, I don't think Kraftwerk will get in...too weird for the committee and seemingly more esteemed by those bands that followed in their footsteps than in the music industry.
I think it comes down to Sting vs. The Smiths for that 5th and final spot. Sting is in with The Police and that is to our advantage...but given that he is nominated, had a solo career, is a music industry staple, he has that insider's insider track.
Green Day, Vaughan, and Reed are in. The rest is up for grabs. The Smiths have always been the critics darlings and I can see them making it this year with this field.